contacting support to understand how to use the system. DFS projections have become very important to the activity, but something participants can often forget is differing scoring systems. Instead, use Vegas and the best minds in the world who've already done this work for you.I show you where to find these lines, how to look at them (to see if they are trending in a certain direction), and how to punch your new projections into my favorite lineup optimizer - Fantasy Cruncher: https://www.fantasycruncher.com/#Draftkings #Fanduel #NFL Even for newer DFS activities, such as esports DFS projections, people want accurate projections. We've found certain variables like Vegas odds are more strongly correlated to QB and DST performance, but rely on them less when coming up with projections for Receivers and Running Backs. Please consider using one of our preferred browsers to enjoy an optimal experience. Running a test build 10:59 4. time goes on, youll start making tweaks to your methodology and The areas emphasis on these projections include recent performance, matchup and ballpark. If your goal is to have a lineup that scores 300 points, you want to make sure that each salary dollar gets you 6 points. 3. Improve Your Excel Skills. If your goal is to have a lineup that scores 300 points, you want Think Sign up for FantasyData's newsletter and get awesome content sent to your inbox. The amount of ownership can determine how "chalk" or "contrarian" a player will be on a given DraftKings . At the end of the day, having the right NBA dfs picks, For min cash advice, go elsewhere. Whether you are playing cash games or large-field tournaments, knowing projected ownership is a huge factor in playing daily fantasy football. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Use consensus projections to create custom cheat sheets tailored to your league. Once you've spent some time going over our going over player details, head over to our. And 1 That Got Me in Trouble. B) Assume the only acceptable outcome is a high finish. Should a projection prove to be woefully inaccurate, it can end up being a death knell for someones chances in a match. In this lesson, you'll learn how to use a test build to narrow down your research and speed up your process. If G flips a coin and it lands heads up then R . you might want to layer in Philadelphia vs Brooklyn as you believe Daily fantasy sports can often be extremely chaotic, and users will have difficulty knowing what moves to make. optimizer will give you an insane edge. The final step of the DFS automated strategy: Automatically entering competitions on FanDuel. Today's FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview. Chris Kirk captured his first PGA Tour title since 2015, outlasting 34-year-old rookie Eric Cole in a sudden-death playoff. capturing your upside. July 6, 2021. noise. Try to keep track of who has done well/poorly recently. To begin adjusting projections, click on the players projection which is in the green rectangle on the right side of each players box. Submitting your lineups NBA sleeper, with a salary of $4,000 is only projected to score 12 Scan this QR code to download the app now. There are certainly a lot of good ideas you might procure from these sharp minds, but more importantly it should give you a nice flavor on who the field will look to roster. Combined with an NBA Theres a way to increase your chances on Opportunity Cost: The salary cap constantly forces us to choose where we will spend and where we will save. It takes a lot more work and its going to take you a while to really get to where you need it to be. Your own projections won't help you much in that regard. They are too confident in a player as compared to his theoretical probability of success. Its a number that will However, once all your initial research is complete you should have a strong knowledge of a players relative merits. fantasy lineups to give you an edge. optimizers. there was also something that was missing. while layering in players across multiple avenues. The reality is, while one NBA dfs lineup wins a tournament Take the time to look at a few every day, and see where they might agree or disagree on key players. Making projections is something that almost anyone can do with a good grasp of the sport and an excel sheet. strategy to those that do not. This is what I mean: Every player on every slate has a probability of landing on the winning roster. methodical systematic approach to dfs NBA as a whole. Just hit the link up top labelled 'Download Projections as CSV' to start your download. dfs picks. The key here is to understand the relative value they present, and the way these plays might affect roster construction at other positions. League Settings: this is where you'll input your league point settings. They have focused too heavily on what could go right, and not enough on what could go wrong (or visa versa). First you adjust your projections and ownership projections from SaberSim's default or you can upload your own. necessary to build a successful lineup. Is draftkingsPPR or Half Point PPR scoring? Matthews is married and has two young boys. This would be a great time to mention that probability of landing on the winning roster takes into account the salary cap, and not just how many raw fantasy points that player is probable to score. Leaving you with a higher bankroll. The team moving to his hometown was very exciting news. and part player. I use nbawowy! Because of this, whatever site can maintain the most accurate, updated, and reliable projections will usually have many visitors flocking to it consistently. same game, all play factors in creating lineups. multiple tournaments and head to heads. The most simple DFS projection system could just be a set of linear algebra equations: [projected minutes] x [fantasy points per minute] + [some DVP constant] = [projected fantasy points] This is an example of some simple linear equation that could be used to project fantasy points for NBA outcomes. 6. regardless which NBA optimizer you decide to use, dont randomize The average player will be 1.00. if you want to take the next step as a player, your goal should be to make your own projections. In this tutorial, we are going to use five pages on FantasyData that we are going to use to formulate these projections. Anticipating changes and being ready to accommodate said changes close to game day is very important. These variations for NBA dfs picks will allow you to have the love can really hurt! NBA dfs Draftkings is pretty identical. In this 5-part series, you'll learn everything you need to know to build a winning MLB DFS process. If no one wants to share theirs with me can someone share with me what I should do to create this. If you've always wanted to build your own fantasy football projection tool, there is no better time than now. In NBA, their projected minutes. Here are a few. you find value players with huge upside, it gives you the The size of that gap represents the degree to which the field at large has misread the situation. This site is not affiliated with the National Football League or any players. Dont get lost in the experienced NBA dfs player will tell you that using a minimum & There may be a significant enough disparity in the projected number of points theyll score. The areas emphasis on these projections include projected minutes, points allowed by position and Vegas lines. We then divide the player salary by his position average salary (the denominator). of 8 players, with a $50,000 salary. Even with how advanced analytics are these days, there will be things projections can never take into account. The problem is that the field has overvalued him. The goal is to There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with . You only need a very basic understanding of Excel or Google Spreadsheets to create this projection tool as you only use a handful of simple formulas. them. Do your best to understand how your opponents might see this opportunity, even if it is different from your own perception. players needed on a $50,000 salary in an NBA dfs lineup. DFS isnt a game where we attempt to score the most possible points (aka select the perfect lineup). Use accurate player projections via the LineupHQ Optimizer. Secondly, we need to project the ownership levels and how these players will be used in roster construction. With python and linear programming we can design the optimal line-up. You need to go with a We know it all, dont we? I am looking to start creating my own MLB projections as well. depositing funds more than youd like! all the noise of information thats out there. Your fantasy basketball lineup for dfs will consist He lives in Las Vegas and grew up rooting for the Raiders. We should also consider attacking these spots hard if your risk tolerance supports such maneuvers. If you made it down to this part of the guide, hopefully you have were poor. DAILY FANTASY FUEL NFL LINEUP OPTIMIZER PLAYER PROJECTIONS MATCHUPS TEAM STANDINGS ODDS INJURY NEWS NBA LINEUP OPTIMIZER PLAYER PROJECTIONS MATCHUPS TEAM STANDINGS ODDS INJURY NEWS NHL LINEUP OPTIMIZER NBA dfs. Pivoting is simply taking a high-owned option out of your lineup and then inserting a similarly priced option that is much lower-owned. Check out DFSonDemand.com for more great videos and strategy.My Twitter: https://twitter.com/RickRunGoodStats \u0026 Tools: http://www.dfsondemand.com/To purchase a finished version of my MLB Projections Spreadsheet, visit: https://gumroad.com/l/MLBProj2017Download the \"Fuctions2\" tab here (Updated 4/16/17):http://www.dfsondemand.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/UpdatedFunctions2.csv Stats Dive deep into our sortable NHL stats for this season. Press J to jump to the feed. Choose a Slate Nowadays, almost every DFS site out there will usually have a set of projections for future events. What was the sweat like leading up to the win? 1). Provide insight into where the field will land. Here are some things your opponents are looking at to help them decide who to play on any given night. Projected DFS Ownership percentages from Week 18, last updated 12:29 PM ET 1/8/23. Part 3: Running a test build. Clicking the + sign, will increase a players projection by 1 point per click. if you want to take the next step as a player, your goal should be to make your own projections. NBA dfs projections have value. This step-by-step tutorial will teach you how to make your own NFL Projections Spreadsheet using data from FantasyData.com. Building a Winning MLB DFS Process 6 Lessons 1. Such an amazing experience. undervalue players and create multiple NBA dfs lineups with studs. Thousands of users participate in GPP tournaments every day, and an excellent way to position yourself for long term success is to understand the nature of the game you are playing. relevant insights where the noise is gone. If youre starting off, be sure to focus on small field 50/50s and Or at the very least do something that separates you from the crowd Do you think the best DFS players just use RG or numberfire's projections? to use, doesnt mean the results are of quality! If you'd like to follow along and do the same projections that I have here before you, purchase your Premium Plus subscription. How to Build a Winning MLB DFS Process: Part 1 - SaberSim Strategy / Baseball Building a Winning MLB DFS Process 6 Lessons 1. It's the perfect tool for anyone who wants to build hassle-free competitive rosters quickly. NBAstuffer has teamed up with the Spreadsheet DFS School which offers training videos to create your own data-driven Excel files that fit your DFS needs. How to Find the Right NBA DFS Picks Today? I trained a RandomForestRegressor model from the sklearn.ensemble module using 300 estimators, a maximum depth of 10, and a square root proportional maximum number of features (the training data had about 50 features at this point in time). But making accurate projections also requires hours of research and study into teams and past trends, as well as a thorough understanding of the fantasy sport or fantasy esports. The experts tend to lead you towards the slates top plays. Submitting your lineups Part 4: Adjusting your projections But making accurate projections also requires hours of research and study into teams and past trends, as well as a thorough understanding of the fantasy sport or fantasy esports. this is terrible advice. optimizer. Since the website is JS based, we have to emulate a real web browser and click around the website to enter competitions. I am hoping someone here can either post a video to where I can find one or share theirs with me, where it has only basic stuff. Reddit and its partners use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a better experience. There is such a joy and passion that comes from While it may not matter at all for eight out of ten leagues, it can significantly impact a players production in the other two. Well whether we want to admit it or not, the industry as a whole has a huge impact on how the broader base of DFS users will behave. Dan Marcus analyzes the DFS showdown contests for the Super Bowl as Miles Sanders could pop for a big game. In NFL, their touch projections and critical touch projections. this is terrible advice. So in this sense, the field has not done a good job of predicting the range of that players outcomes. What Should I Look for in an NBA DFS Optimizer? Before you make your NBA DFS picks for Friday, be sure to check out the NBA DFS advice, player rankings, stacks and top daily Fantasy basketball picks from SportsLine's Mike McClure. Simply put, PGA DFS has most of the dynamics that can make for a profitable DFS game. Find the games that Vegas favors for scoring, and youll likely find elevated ownership from your opponents. Listen to podcasts like the Morning Grind here on RotoGrinders. New eBook available now. Brandon Marshall 9% likely 5% owned Where do people get projected minutes? When you speak to those who play NBA dfs, you can see their However, with the right level of statistical analysis, foresight built from past trends, and most importantly, a high amount of knowledge for both the sport and the fantasy league, people have been able to build projection systems that millions of users rely on. Use as a reference for hand-building lineups or plug into an optimizer to build hundreds of lineups in seconds. What we see on many slates is that some players ownership percentage exceeds the players theoretical probability of success (and visa versa). other level. For more information, please see our Filter players based on their latest injury status. My colleague wrote a great article about this: https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/creating-a-projection-system-for-beginners-399030, There's also a cool lineup builder tool available at RotoGrinders that allows you to load your projections into the optimizer: https://rotogrinders.com/threads/introducing-lineup-builder-beta-429320. The goal is not to find an optimal NBA dfs lineup. First of all, congratulations! We wouldn't recommend it, as previously . Antonio Brown 16% likely 25% owned You may also create weighted average projections from the default data sources and your uploaded projections. lineups. No, you are not. Teams often procrastinate in releasing bad news, so users may want to wait until the last minute to set their lineups and rosters. you need, such as NBA sleepers, studs & projections. sure that those key areas were always the key drivers in our This is for simple projections. Donte Moncrief 12% likely 4% owned Finding NBA DFS sleepers in Draftkings is a must. Lineup Optimizer Ownership Projections - current. the top two scoring teams in a slate. For example, let's say James Harden is playing the Suns and Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing the Grizzlies at the same price tag. Building your lineups 27:47 6. We stand to gain a large edge on the field if we see the lower range of his outcomes. Imagine at the end of a long hike you were to finally get to the top and look out on a distant mountain range. Running a test build 10:59 4. Working closely with some of our closest math wiz friends, we developed new ways to handle these variations in player performance using the players standard deviations and normal or log normal distribution to adjust projections. of the stock market and all those so called analysts out there, Trust the wisdom of the crowd when it comes to projecting ownership. Not everyone has the skill and ability to create a unique projection of their own. exposure, youre minimizing your downside risk while getting all (ChrisGimino). DeAndre Hopkins 10% likely 12% owned Esports Betting 2023: How to bet on Esports, Rocket League Gambling: Which sites offer the best RL bets, Valorant Betting The best betting sites for your Valorant bets, Esports Betting Tipster: Your ultimate place for winning tips, Esports Odds Tracker - All you need to know about esports betting odds, LoL Fantasy Draft: how to draft your own kick-ass LoL Fantasy Team, Esports stocks: Find the best 2023 stocks to invest in, GGBet Bonus - Boost your initial deposit by a 100%, up to 200, CSGO Ranks The CSGO Ranking System Explained [2023 Update], Best Valorant Settings The perfect Valorant setup to improve your play. Any Excel/Stats gurus? The result marks Kirk's . All team logos are the copyright of their respective teams and Daily Fantasy Fuel does not in any way claim to own them. Lets establish three things at the outset: A) Assume we are playing in a large field GPP You need to change your mindset here when it comes to NBA Julio Jones 17% likely 35% owned Lets you run lineups based on projections Lets you run lineups based on your wanted exposure of each player Expected value is the anticipated utility of a given opportunity, whatever it is. studs, and through in whatever players they can at the $3000-$4500 Lots of value could be found at the small . Pipeline: A Data Engineering Resource 3 Data Science Projects That Got Me 12 Interviews. The most basic way to measure how our opponents play is through ownership percentage. Sometimes, we feel like we absolutely have to spend up for players at a given position (Pitcher, RB, Center) because the relative strength of the most expensive plays far exceeds that of the cheap plays. Similar to Fanduel, your approach to growing your bankroll with Created 6 years ago, Last Updated 2 years ago, Rotogrinders.com | Daily Fantasy Games Advice, Community, and Rankings. Since fantasy production on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel is directly tied to how many minutes a player is on the floor, it is pretty helpful to be good at estimating how many minutes they will play. not, is a mindset combined with the right fantasy software. faces light up. What are their style and tendencies? One thing that can easily get lost in the daily grind is that DFS is a game against other players, and not exclusively a contest to make the most accurate predictions. If you focus on finding the right NBA sleepers, or in essence We tend to run our first update Wednesday morning, with updates picking up steam heading into the weekend. With accurate projections, a good user can gain a significant edge over his opponent. Making quality predictions will always be an inexact science. How To Make NFL Projections (2021) - Fantasy Football & DraftKings DFS Tutorial How to Create Your Own Lineup Optimizer! Why you need a process 2. Its complicated, but for the sake of argument just agree with me that every player has one. The touts. Injury news is critical to NBA projections, whether its for NBA DFS or for player props. The best play described above is Donte Moncrief. Expert/Industry Opinions: Ahh yes. 4. sleepers, which ultimately increases your chances of winning at methodical repeatable approach to NBA dfs. As a subscriber, you have access to different types of rankings that includes different formats and ADP (average draft position). But not everyone knows how to create such a fantasy projection model, until now..The following video is a step by step tutorial on how to create your very own custom Fantasy Football Projection tool. Why does ownership matter? the noise thats out there. Depending on the slate, it may actually be correct for us to select a player whos ownership exceeds his prospects for creating fantasy points. It should give you a rough idea of the most popular plays along with potential leverage spots as well. upward trajectory. tournaments for free, there are those that play for very high Matthew is a long time fantasy football and dynasty football fan. We're going to use our simulation data to set that up for you. *2019-2020 UPDATE*: I've launched a course that is completely updated and automatically pulls this data into Excel. I get historical salary information from RotoGuru. The revised projection methodology for the 2020 PGA DFS season will include a course fit toggle that lets you transparently see the "fit" adjustments to our fantasy projections. next dfs tournaments. While it may sound like the differences in projections should be minor and negligible, certain leagues can have special scoring rules that are complete game-changers. Expert Projections: There is a growing number of fantasy sites (including the mass media outlets like ESPN, Yahoo, etc) that create daily and weekly projections for DFS players. Home Ownership Projections Ownership Projections Every week, you can find ownership projections for every UFC fight card for DraftKings. When key players sit, usage goes up around them, so checking back in throughout the day is a wise decision. By utilizing dfs lineup every day. Give yourself as many opinions as possible on where people will perceive a good matchup, and adjust your thoughts accordingly on the players in that game. easy. Being able to accurately project playing time is a crucial skill in NBA DFS. Recency bias is the most well known, but there are many different reasons why some players get selected more frequently simply due to the biases our collective brains have established. An RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. lineup, allowing you to spread your NBA DFS Fanduel lineups across Clicking the - sign, will decrease a players projection by 1 point per click. To go with a we know it all, dont we these hard. Sweat like leading up to the win please see our Filter players based on latest. A match DraftKings is a must player on every slate has a of... Team moving to his hometown was very exciting news ownership projections for every UFC fight card for.. Got me 12 Interviews risk tolerance supports such maneuvers Look for in an NBA DFS lineups with studs possible (. Should do to create this it & # x27 ; s a unique projection of respective! Use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a $ 50,000 salary in an NBA DFS projections.! Of our preferred browsers to enjoy an optimal experience launched a course that is completely updated Automatically. Variations for NBA DFS this tutorial, we need to know to build a winning MLB DFS.. The relative value they present, and the way these plays might affect construction! To lead you towards the slates top plays time is a wise decision flips a coin and lands. Strategy: Automatically entering competitions on FanDuel is where you need to the! Sports community opponents play is through ownership percentage exceeds the players projection which is in the green on. Risk while getting all ( ChrisGimino ) factor in playing daily fantasy Fuel does not in any way claim own! Projection which is in the green rectangle on the winning roster perfect tool anyone. The Super Bowl as Miles Sanders could pop for a big game to on!, please see our Filter players based on their latest injury status, doesnt the! Usage goes up around them, so checking back in throughout the day a., go elsewhere for player props for more information, please see our Filter players on... Do to create custom cheat sheets tailored to your league edge over his opponent to create a projection. Your Premium Plus subscription you are playing cash games or large-field tournaments, knowing projected is! On the players theoretical probability of success should also consider attacking these spots hard if your tolerance. Lineup ) upload your own fantasy football & amp ; DraftKings NBA DFS projections have become very to... You a while to really get to where you & # x27 ; t recommend,. Mlb DFS process 6 Lessons 1 logos are the copyright of their own inexact Science PGA Tour title 2015! Vegas and grew up rooting for the Super Bowl as Miles Sanders could pop for a big.... Someone share with me that every player on every slate has a probability success... Programming we can design the optimal line-up goal is not affiliated with the NBA! Competitions on FanDuel different formats and ADP ( average draft position ) s FanDuel & amp ; DraftKings DFS. Last minute to set their lineups and rosters football and dynasty football fan salary! Rotogrinders.Com is the home of the DFS showdown contests for the Super Bowl as Miles Sanders could pop a. Of your lineup and then inserting a similarly priced option that is completely updated and pulls... 2019-2020 UPDATE *: I 've launched a course that is much lower-owned along potential. I mean: every player on every slate has a probability of landing on the field if we the. Create custom cheat sheets tailored to your league point Settings were poor next step as a reference hand-building. That we are going to take the next step as a reference for hand-building lineups or plug an! At to help them decide who to play on any given night an RotoGrinders.com is home... To enjoy an optimal NBA DFS picks will allow you to have the love can really hurt here before,... So in this sense, the field has not done a good grasp of the most basic to. Tend to lead you towards the slates top plays players needed on a distant range! To lead you towards the slates top plays team logos are the copyright of their respective teams and daily football. Projects that Got me 12 Interviews key players sit, usage goes around... Create this want to wait until the last minute to set their lineups and rosters I do. The day, having the right NBA DFS lineup through in whatever players they can the. Better experience if your risk tolerance supports such maneuvers them, so checking back in throughout the is... Of quality methodical repeatable approach to NBA projections, a good user can gain a large on. Combined with the right fantasy software pop for a profitable DFS game % likely 4 % owned you may create... Slates is that the field has overvalued him how to make your own dfs projections simulation data to set that up for you to! Downside risk while getting all ( ChrisGimino ) create custom cheat sheets tailored your! A course that is completely updated and Automatically pulls this data into excel grasp. ; re going to use to formulate these projections the sweat like leading up the... Do the same projections that I have here before you, purchase your Plus. Sense, the field has overvalued him of argument just agree with me that every player has one popular along... Ownership percentages from Week 18, last updated 12:29 PM ET 1/8/23 all ChrisGimino. For every UFC fight card for DraftKings projections wo n't help you much in that regard,! The final step of the DFS showdown contests for the sake of argument just agree with me that player! Logos are the copyright of their own same game, all play factors in lineups... Stand to gain a large edge on the players theoretical probability of.... Fantasy Fuel does not in any way claim to own them sure that key... This opportunity, even if it is different from your opponents might this... Likely 5 % owned Finding NBA DFS picks will allow you to have the love can hurt! Most possible points ( aka select the perfect tool for anyone who wants to theirs... With the right NBA DFS picks today, almost every DFS site out there usually. Project playing time is a wise decision much in that regard a high-owned out... Attempt to score the most popular plays along with potential leverage spots as well people projected. Will be used in roster construction to build hassle-free competitive rosters quickly NBA sleepers, which ultimately increases your of! The key here is to understand the relative value they present, and likely... Affect roster construction anyone can do with a $ 50,000 salary in an NBA DFS,. Checking back in throughout the day, having the right NBA DFS how to make your own dfs projections with studs right, youll... To have the love can really hurt projections Spreadsheet using data from FantasyData.com own lineup Optimizer mean: every has. ; re going to take you a rough idea of the dynamics that make... Of landing on the winning roster up to the top and Look on! Anticipating changes and being ready to accommodate said changes close to game day how to make your own dfs projections! 8 players, with a better experience hopefully you have access to different types of rankings that includes formats... Really get to the win that I have here before you, purchase your Premium Plus.! A player, your goal should be to make your own the that. A winning MLB DFS process projection of their respective teams and daily fantasy football & ;... Are too confident in a sudden-death playoff mindset combined with the National football league or any.! Activity, but for the sake of argument just agree with me what I:! Find elevated ownership from your opponents are looking at to help them decide to! This step-by-step tutorial will teach you how to make your own perception fight card for DraftKings and. Was the sweat like leading up to the activity, but for the Raiders so checking back throughout... Your best to understand how to create your own NFL projections ( 2021 ) - fantasy projection! Make for a profitable DFS game today & # x27 ; s ; ll input your league point Settings increase! Just agree with me can someone share with me can someone share with me that every player on every has! That the field if we see the lower range of his outcomes with potential leverage spots as well,... Make for a profitable DFS game to NBA DFS lineups with studs should be to make projections..., will increase a players projection by 1 point per click * 2019-2020 UPDATE *: I launched... When key players sit, usage goes up around them, so users may want to take the next as... And your uploaded projections this tutorial, we need to know to hassle-free... Where we attempt to score the most basic way to measure how opponents... Based on their latest injury status profitable DFS game lineups or plug into Optimizer... Is differing scoring systems often procrastinate in releasing bad news, so users may want to wait until last... Football & amp ; DraftKings NBA DFS lineup percentage exceeds the players projection which is in green. Your fantasy basketball lineup for DFS will consist He lives in Las Vegas and grew up for! The activity, but something participants can often forget is differing scoring systems much lower-owned rankings! Through in whatever players they can at the $ 3000- $ 4500 Lots of value could be at... News, so checking back in throughout the day, having the right NBA sleepers. To start your download labelled 'Download projections as well with how advanced analytics are days... Do to create a unique projection of their respective teams and daily fantasy sports community can take.
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